The Other ‘Big One’: Is California Ready for Peak Oil?

Posted in peak oil, preparedness with tags , , , on July 22, 2008 by daveroom

by Erica Etelson

I lived in Berkeley for sixteen years before getting around to stashing my five gallons of water and twenty cans of fruit cocktail. I’m as ready as can be for the big earthquake we’re all waiting for. But what I’m not prepared for—what no Californian save the odd self-reliant homesteader is prepared for, is the other Big One—peak oil.

Like it or not, oil fuels the engines of industrialized economies. In California, we burn through nearly 20 billion gallons of the stuff each year just driving around. Then there’s the oil we use to grow and transport food and pump water, the oil that fuels planes, trains and cargo ships, and the oil that is embedded in every computer, every inch of asphalt and every bit of plastic. Oil is everywhere; so imagine my surprise when I learned last year that it is running out–and that the federal government is doing nothing to prepare for this eventuality.

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Peak Oil Townhall Meetings

Posted in peak oil, preparedness with tags , , , , , , on July 22, 2008 by daveroom

Written by Andre Angelatoni

The San Francisco Peak Oil Preparedness Task Force is committed to educating the people of San Francisco about oil depletion and how they can prepare.

We have teamed up with the Presidio School of Management (home of a well-regarded sustainability MBA) to host a series of six town hall meetings this August.

The town hall meetings are open to anyone but have been designed specially for the people of San Francisco.

The meetings will take place entirely online.

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Peak Oil Is A Done Deal

Posted in Uncategorized with tags , , , on July 16, 2008 by daveroom

Written by Dave Cohen

Wednesday, 16 July 2008
It ain’t over ’til the fat lady sings
— anonymous

The fat lady is warming up
— anonymous

I now believe that the hypothesis of a near or medium-term peak in the world’s oil supply is confirmed beyond any reasonable doubt. A shift in emphasis that speaks to reducing our demand for oil and examining alternatives to oil is now required. I will be taking that road in the future, leaving specific concerns about the oil supply behind.

Today’s story briefly summarizes why I believe “peak oil” is a done deal. The forecast1 below reflects my own view. This analysis does not necessarily reflect the view of ASPO-USA.

Global oil (crude + condensate) production will peak at 76.5 ± 0.5 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2011, ± 1 year, with a probability of 80%. There is a 20% likelihood that output will peak at another level—not 76-77 million b/d—between 2009 and 2013.

This estimate intentionally says nothing about the shape of the production curve after the peak. I stand by this forecast and will not be revising it in the future. A “peak oil” forecast examines the supply-side of the oil market, but reality dictates that high prices will affect demand. My estimate can thus be viewed as a “low price” or “reference” case that ignores the effects of rising prices. See the Summary for a brief discussion.

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Are CNN and Shell getting it?

Posted in peak oil, preparedness with tags , , , on April 8, 2008 by daveroom

By Andre Angelantoni

This advertisement, sponsored by Shell and CNN’s Principal Voices Series, appeared in Time and Fortune over Easter and was written by Jeremy Leggett, the climate change and peak oil activist.

“The bad news is that no combination of technologies can plug the energy gap if the peakists are correct. There will be a third, and last, global energy crisis. It will dwarf previous crises. Profound economic dislocation will result. The challenge for human civilization will be how we rebuild post-peak.”

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IRAQ: What Hillary and Barack Don’t Want You To Know – And John will not discuss.

Posted in peak oil, preparedness with tags , , , , , , , , , on April 3, 2008 by daveroom

Guest Essay by Ron Cooke, author of “Oil, Jihad and Destiny” and “Detensive Nation”

Does Iraq have anything to do with the price of gasoline? Diesel fuel? Heating oil? Propane? Let’s examine what Hillary and Barack don’t want you to know and John is reluctant to reveal.

Let’s start with a statistic. At least 42 percent of the accessible conventional oil we humans need is located in one relatively small region on our planet. The Middle East. And the people who run this region do not seem to be in any hurry to send it our way. Get used to it. These people will produce their oil on their schedule. They are not going to produce their oil on our schedule. Existing drilling programs guarantee demand will exceed supply. Sometime between 2010 and 2017. Perhaps sooner. And they really don’t care if we do not like the price of gasoline.

Get the picture?

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Peak Oil Interview on Living Green

Posted in peak oil, preparedness with tags , , on April 2, 2008 by daveroom

Guest Post by Andre Angelantoni

My peak oil interview is now up on Living Green.

In it, I discuss:
* when peak oil is likely to occur
* what specifically people should do to prepare
* what I’m calling “The New Game for Humanity”
* the role business can play in a post-peak economy
* the Relocalize and Transition Towns Movements
* and more…

You’ll find the interview at http://www.livinggreenshow.com. Scroll down until you see “Latest Podcast Episodes” and click on Listen Now beside #32.

The only thing I would change is that at one point I say that oil is running out, which technically is true (that started the day we began to use it) but the more important concept is that production is about to decline. Oh, well.

I hope you get value out of the podcast.

-Andre’
——————————

———————-
André Angelantoni
Inspiring Green Leadership
Peak Oil, Climate Change and Business, Free Executive Briefing
“… very motivating…A very powerful presentation.” – Sun Microsystems
“…fascinating, brilliant and important…” – Tim Black, Director, Marie Stopes International
www.InspiringGreenLeadership.com/peak-oil-climate-change-and-business

Schlesinger, Husseini and Russian Production Begins to Decline

Posted in peak oil with tags , , , on April 1, 2008 by daveroom

Guest Post By Andre Angelantoni

In a wide-ranging speech on March 13, 2008, James Schlesinger starts out with:

“We face a challenge, an immense challenge, both foreign and domestic.

The question is our ability to respond effectively to that challenge and that remains a bit problematic. In his study of history, a 12-volume study of history, Arnold Toynbee examined I think it was 27 civilizations and why some of them had failed, why they had collapsed and it was in response to a challenge that they could not handle, some specific challenge. And a question about which we might brood is whether the combination of energy and environmental challenges will be ones that we can handle, handle with severe damage or fail to handle.”
— James Schlesinger’s Speech at The National Academies Summit on America’s Energy Future – The Geopolitical Context of America’s Energy Future; Day 1, Part 3, March 13, 2008

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Technical Analysis: Crude Heading for $115

Posted in Uncategorized on March 16, 2008 by daveroom

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Technical Analysis: Crude oil headed for $115

Posted in The Price Is Right? with tags , on March 9, 2008 by daveroom

As shown on Weekly chart on the right side of the diagram, oil continued trending upward in the first week of March, surging to an all time high of $106.54 – breaking the upper trend line from May 2006 – on the last day of the month before dropping to close the week at $105.15. The week ended with oil above the upper Bollinger Band. Resistance is at $106.54 and support is at $103.64 which was the midpoint of last weeks candlestick body.  The next support is at $100.09 which was the previous high a month ago. Since crude passed $100.09 two weeks ago, it appears to have set up for a double bottom (12/06/2007 and 1/22/2008). If oil is to complete this pattern, it will reach approximately $115 probably riding the upper Bollinger band up over the next month or two. Now, it must break Friday’s resistance at $106.54.

From a candlestick, the last four weeks are three advancing soldiers plus two which presages more strength.

Crude oil 3-8-2008

As shown in the Daily chart on the left, oil continues in a upward channel (shown by the yellow straight lines) and ends up between the Upper Bollinger and the 5 day moving average. The last candlestick was almost a long legged doji with the upper and lower shadows both longer than the body. Resistance is $105.97 and $106.54. Support is at $103.91 to $103.95. Next support is at $102.49.

Technical Analysis: New crude oil target $115

Posted in The Price Is Right? with tags , on March 2, 2008 by daveroom

As shown on Weekly chart on the right side of the diagram, oil was trending upward the entire month of February, surging to an all time high of $103.05 – hitting the upper trend line from May 2006 – on the last day of the month before dropping to close the week at $101.84. The week ended with oil slightly above the upper Bollinger Band and comfortably above all the weekly moving averages. Resistance is at $103.05 and support is at $100.09 which was the high when oil first broke the $100 benchmark and also is the mid point of last week’s green candlestick. The next support is at $97.75 which is last week’s low and the mid point of the previous week.Since crude passed $100.09, it appears to have set up for a double bottom (12/06/2007 and 1/22/2008). If oil is to complete this pattern, it will reach approximately $115 probably riding the upper Bollinger band up over the next month or two. But first, it must break Friday’s resistance at $103.05.

From a candlestick, the last four weeks are three advancing soldiers plus one which presages more strength.

Weeley and Daily March 3, 2008

As shown in the Daily chart on the left, oil has been riding just below the Upper Bollinger for four weeks. It is now below the Upper Bollinger but right above the 5 day moving average. Resistance is $103.05. Support is at $101.25. Next support is at $100.09.

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